Legal Marijuana Access Faces An Existential Threat In 2026, And We Must Fight Back (Op-Ed)

*“These initiatives represent the first-ever large-scale coordinated attack
on adult-use markets… This is not a drill. It is the moment to come
together to defeat the prohibitionists.”*

*By Adam Smith, Marijuana Policy Project*

2025 felt like a year of waiting in cannabis, but 2026 may be something
else entirely.

Get ready for a major pushback against adult-use markets.

While much of the cannabis world spent month after month in 2025 watching
(or lobbying) Congress on hemp, and the White House on rescheduling, three
near-identical state ballot initiatives were being filed for the November
2026 election that would end regulated adult-use sales in Massachusetts,
Maine and Arizona. The Massachusetts and Maine initiatives would also re-criminalize
non-medical home grow.

The Massachusetts campaign has submitted enough signatures to qualify, and
awaits validation. Signature collection is ongoing in Maine and Arizona.

While it’s possible that one or more of these initiatives fail to make the
ballot, it’s imperative that we take them seriously and prepare for a
fight. These are not symbolic protests or fringe efforts. They are
coordinated campaigns run by experienced political operatives. And from the
sound of it, they may already have a ton of money behind them.

*How Much?*

On December 19, the Arizona committee chair told the Arizona Capitol Times
that the campaign expects to spend $5 million on signature gathering in the
state, with an additional $10 to $20 million planned for the broader
campaign. In Massachusetts, we estimate that at least $1 million was spent
to gather signatures.

Those numbers should get our attention.

Meanwhile, over the past year, we saw a partially successful legislative
push in Ohio to chip away at voter-approved adult-use legalization—though
the Marijuana Policy Project (MPP) was on the ground and helped limit the
damage—as well as similar legislative efforts elsewhere.

In the media, fear-based coverage of cannabis dramatically increased across
mainstream outlets in 2025, while targeted anti-legalization messaging
across right-wing media has worked to soften Republican support. In fact,
Gallup reports that Republican support for legalization has dropped from 55
percent to 40 percent since 2023.

*That’s Not A Coincidence. It’s A Playbook.*

MPP, which has led and won more cannabis ballot initiative campaigns than
anyone on either side of this issue, is already working closely with
industry allies in Massachusetts to launch a “No” campaign. We expect to do
the same in Maine and Arizona.

These initiatives represent the first-ever large-scale coordinated attack
on adult-use markets. How we as a cannabis ecosystem respond, and
particularly whether and how the national cannabis business community steps
up to defend itself and each other, will determine whether this attempt to
roll back our progress ends here, or whether it metastasizes.

*“End Regulated Adult-Use Markets? How Could They Possibly Win?”*

Campaigns do not commit resources at this level without internal polling
and strategic modeling that shows a path to victory. And sure enough, in
that same Capitol Times piece, the Arizona committee chair alluded to
private polling that allegedly showed less than majority support for
adult-use markets in the state. The orchestrated collapse of Republican
support for legalization over the past two years offers them hope as well.

And if adult-use shows weakness at the ballot box in November, combined
with dwindling support for legalization among Republican voters—support
that could erode further as prohibitionists use these campaigns to get
their message out—it would significantly strengthen the prohibitionists’
hand within the administration, in Congress and in state legislatures
across the country.

This is not a drill. It is the moment to come together to defeat the
prohibitionists and their initiatives so convincingly that their funders
stop taking their calls.

*Making The Big Case*

MPP, as it has done successfully for more than 30 years, will lead here.
And while there will obviously be tactical and messaging variance between
states, the core question in all three campaigns is the same: whether
regulated markets are safer, smarter and more effective than returning to
prohibition. It’s an opportunity that we cannot afford to miss.

As recent events have begun to turn the nation’s attention back to
cannabis, these campaigns provide us with an opportunity to re-center and
re-engage the public conversation—not just in three states, but
nationally—around the benefits of regulation versus the harms of
prohibition. That conversation will focus on protecting public health and
safety, reduced youth access, increased personal freedom, rational law
enforcement priorities and creating jobs, economic opportunity and state
revenues.

Making the case against prohibition on broad public policy
grounds—particularly to reach and to move people who have no particular
interest in cannabis or cannabis users—is advocacy’s sweet spot. It’s what
we’ve done successfully for decades, and it’s why more than half of the
U.S. population now lives in states with regulated markets.

When we do that, and when we defeat these efforts—loudly and
convincingly—the results will redound to all aspects of cannabis and
cannabinoid policy reform everywhere in the country and at all levels of
government.

*An Attack On Us All*

Make no mistake, this is an attack on the entire industry and cannabis
users everywhere—and on legal cannabis itself—regardless of where you live
or do business.

With the far better argument on our side, we won’t need to outspend the
prohibitionists to beat them. But we will need to be competitive. It’s
going to require real resources to run campaigns capable of getting our
message and our voters out.

And while we know that everyone’s struggling, with tens of thousands of
cannabis-aligned businesses and professionals in the crosshairs—licensees
and allied businesses alike—success cannot and will not depend on a small
handful of companies or individuals financing the effort, or upon whether a
single state’s industry can raise more or less money to defend themselves.

Rather, success will depend on whether the national cannabis business
community stands up for themselves and for each other in a show of force by
making some meaningful contribution to the common defense.

*Failure Is Not An Option*

If even one of these initiatives succeeds, it would send a dangerous signal
that legal cannabis markets are politically reversible. And that signal
would not stop at state borders. It would ripple through capital markets,
transactions, insurance underwriting, lending decisions, expansion plans
and legislative debates nationwide.

As Dentons partners Joanne Caceres and Hannah King warned in a Marijuana
Moment op-ed about the initiatives:

“Imagine the signal sent to investors if legalization proves politically
reversible. The risk premium on cannabis assets would skyrocket. Lenders,
insurers, and ancillary service providers would likely pull back. M&A
activity, already tepid, could stall.”

Even coming close could encourage a second wave of initiatives in states
across the country, each requiring significant resources to oppose. These
initiatives need to be beaten and beaten soundly to put an end to this.

*All Together Now*

We cannot leave our brothers and sisters—cannabis consumers, business
owners, investors, employees, advocates—in Massachusetts, Maine and Arizona
to sink or swim on their own. It’s imperative that we stand with them. Not
only because they might otherwise be overwhelmed by prohibitionist
spending, but because if they sink, we might all drown.

This year, in addition to both new and ongoing legislative work across
multiple states, MPP is gearing back up into campaign mode to fight for the
freedom of adults to buy safe, regulated cannabis. And for the future of
the legal industry that provides it.

Not just in Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona, but everywhere.

*Adam Smith is executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project.*

The post Legal Marijuana Access Faces An Existential Threat In 2026, And We
Must Fight Back (Op-Ed) appeared first on Marijuana Moment.